Sunday, July 1, 2007

Mock Draft 'Analysts' Power Rankings - Who did the best?

NBA Draft:Grading out the Mock Drafts...

The NBA Draft has come and gone. There are 30 more millionaires in America scattered amongst NBA cities, and there are countless others that hope to one day shake the hand of the NBA’s commissioner in the future. There were stories of dreams realized by players, hopes lifted by fans, and the promise of a new day withing NBA organizations. With that said, there were disappointments as well. There were disappointments of players who thought they would go higher, to a different team, in the first round versus the second, or in the second round versus not at all. There were also disappointments of NBA organizations who missed their guy, and fans who think they might have missed their’s as well.

As in every draft, this is to be expected. On Friday and Saturday those same experts that gave you their Mock Drafts in the weeks before the Draft, will now give you their draft day grades. They will tell which teams helped themselves, and which teams hurt themselves, based on who the teams were able to acquire. All of this is interesting discussion, as it is every year, and we all enjoy engaging in these debates. This year, we here at News from the Nosebleeds, decided to give out our own draft day grades, and rankings. Except we are not rating the NBA teams on how well they did, we are rating the analysts, on how well they did. In our latest edition of Analyze the Analyst - we tracked 10 of the most popular sports authorities, and pitted their results against what actually happened. In doing so, we were able to see, who was right, and who was wrong, and who we should believe next time. These are the results:

Mock Draft Power Rankings
Publication...Writer - Total Points

1. ESPN...Chad Ford - 1586
2. Real GM...Christopher Reina - 1549
3. NBC Sports...Rich Zuckerman - 1536
4. Inside Hoops...Jeff Lenchiner - 1529
5. CBS Sportsline...Gary Parrish - 1519
6. College Hoops Net...Shawn Siegel - 1514
7. Fox Sports...Jeff Goodman - 1487
8. Sports Blog Nation...Spots Blog Collaboration - 1472
9. Sporting News...Sean Deveney - 1467
10. Sports Illustrated...Chris Eckstrand - 1423

In grading out these results, a couple variables should be mentioned.

We used the latest mock drafts available online from the respective analysts. Some were last updated one day, two days, five days before. We tried to use the latest mock drafts in our analysis. ESPN's Chad Ford updated his mock draft from the Wednesday night before the draft, to the evening of the draft (a few hours prior) for the last time, and his was the latest.

Click on Mock Draft: Dates view a list of when each Mock used was last updated.

CBS Sportsline was the only publication to get the Top Five Picks exactly correct in order, others had four, none had six. Also, while the other nine were published by one writer, Sports Blog Nation was a collection of bloggers representing 30 NBA teams, they predicted trades, no one else did.

Click on Mock Draft: Draft Board to see each Mock Draft in its entirety

Scoring is also an obvious variable. We used the First Round only. Those picks are the only guaranteed contracts in the NBA, so we made that the point of emphasis. We associated a score with each pick of the mock draft, based on how close the player was to being drafted at that spot. We tried not to penalize a mock draft that selected a player 31st, and he went 30th through our weighted multiplier.

Click on Mock Draft: Rating Formula to view the scoring formula

Lastly were trades. We did not factor trades from one team to another into the equation at all. For one, the Mock Drafts did not include possible trades, so we didn't either. And secondly, the Mock was a reflection of where the player would get drafted, so we rated the accuracy of that.

We would love to hear from you. Let us, at News From the Nosebleeds, know what you think about the results, analysts, rating formula, and more. Blog on Now, Post your response.


BigTimeGameBoards said...

This is some top shelf analysis. These nba draft "gurus" are no more savvy than a die hard hoops fan. One has to wonder how close of contact chris ford has within the NBA circle - considering that he was the last to post an updated mock before the draft, and scored the highest.
-Tailgate like a champion,

kpfalv said...

Top shelf analysis indeed, don't take it easy on 'em B-Dalt, Can't wait to see who you go after next.

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Overheard some co-workers talking about it all week but didn't have time to ask so I thought I would post it here to see if someone could help me out.

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