Monday, June 25, 2007

How Does Sports Illustrated's NFL Preview 2006 Look in Review?


Sports Illustrated NFL Preview 2007...How did SI do last year in 2006??? Not so good...

Sports Illustrated. The father and all-knowing source for sports information. They have published their NFL Preview Edition. Terrific right. Awesome. I can’t wait to read it so that I can turn my television off on Sunday, and just know what will happen. Because they are Sports Illustrated, they must be right - right? Well, kinda. In the latest edition of the crap shoot that is prognosticating the NFL, King Peter and his minions will research, review, and analyze. But do they know more than you, do they know more than me. Who’s analyzing the analysts? Are they going to publish how they did last year, in the pages preceding this year’s NFL Preview? Are they going to give any money back from the newsstand price they charged last year, if their NFL Preview was, in review, inaccurate? I don’t think they will, but since Sports Illustrated won’t tell you how they did last year, or refund your money, we wanted to let you know how they did before they tempted you to buy their latest collection of guesses.

Lets start with a riddle. What do the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos have in common? You say, ‘two teams that were unable to qualify for the playoffs last season even as wildcards...’ I say, correct, but not the answer I was looking for. The Panthers and Broncos have in common the fact that they were Sports Illustrated’s preseason edition magazine pick to match up head to head in Super Bowl XLI. Hey Peyton, where they there? Carolina and Denver’s combined records were 17-15. Indy and Chicago’s, the two teams that actually played for the Super Bowl combined for a record were 25-7 in the regular season. Sports Illustrated picked the Carolina Panthers too win the Super Bowl and lay claim to Lombardi Trophy in ‘06. Indianapolis beat Chicago. Carolina finished the regular season 8-8.

Sports Illustrated correctly analyzed, after breaking down hours of film with Ron Jaworski, that the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks would qualify for the playoffs. Colts and Pats, my mother could have picked. Seattle was in the Super Bowl the year before. But still sometimes the previous loser of the Super Bowl falls apart and doesn’t make the playoffs the next year, so for the Bears, Giants, and Seahawks, We’ll give ‘em credit for those picks - sort of. There are 12 playoff teams however. They got five right in the 2006 NFL Draft Preview. 5 of 12, 41%. That is 41% accuracy rate and they did not pick either team to correctly advance to the Super Bowl. There are 32 teams, 12 get into the playoffs, 20 do not, 5 of 12. I don’t think that is so good - do you. So if they picked 7 teams to make the Playoffs, and those teams did not get in, who’d they pick you ask. I will tell you.

Besides prognosticating the Carolina Panthers (8-8) and the Denver Broncos (9-7) in the clash of mediocrity - a.k.a. - the ‘Super Bowl ‘06’, Sports Illustrated also selected the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8), the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), the Washington Redskins (5-11), the Atlanta Falcons (7-9), and the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) to make the 2006 NFL Playoffs.
The 7 teams that Sports Illustrated selected to make the playoffs in 2006 that did not make it, had a combined regular season record of 53-59, six games under .500.

The seven teams that they did not pick - the NY Jets (10-6), Baltimore Ravens (13-3), San Diego Chargers (14-2), Kansas City Chiefs (9-7), Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), Dallas Cowboys (9-7), and the New Orleans Saints (10-6) that actually made the playoffs had a combined record of 74-38. 36 games over .500. A difference of 42 games (Sports Illustrated -6, actuality +36) over .500. That is way off in my opinion.

Also, to add insult to injury Sports Illustrated’s preseason Coach of the Year in 2006 was Arizona’s own Dennis Green. The Arizona Cardinals finished 5-11, and they will have a new head coach tossing the red replay bean bag in 2007. And while Dennis Green was well aware of the fact that the ‘Bears were who they thought they were’ on a particular Monday night - it wasn’t enough to pull in that ‘Coach of the Year’ award that Sports Illustrated ‘thought he was.’

With all of this said, these are my thoughts and questions that I raise to you. How come, writers who are paid to deliver inside information, analysis, predictions, and stories are allowed to be this wrong. Peter King, and the NFL staff at Sports Illustrated had a job to do last year prior to publishing their NFL preseason magazine. They were to analyze the data, and make a prediction. They were wrong, quite wrong. If a manager of an investment portfolio were to be this wrong one year, you would not pay him to predict the stock market again next year. So why are we supposed to pay Sports Illustrated to predict the NFL again? And what about all those fans - say Redskins’ fans - who thought their team was going to be the best team since the undefeated Dolphins based on the reviews of SI and the like - tough year for them (5-11). What about Panthers fans - win the Super Bowl, how about 8-8.

Lucky for me, I am a Browns fan, I knew we’d stink, and at least SI got that right. But I want to hear from the fans. Do you ever wonder who is analyzing the analysts? Do you ever sit up in the nosebleeds watching your favorite team thinking... "I know more than that guy (insert talking head)" We are here to tell you, you probably do, and we’d rather hear analysis from you, the real News, News From the Nosebleeds. Oh and by the way, what do those talking heads say when their predictions are wrong? They say the aforementioned team ‘underachieved.’ Maybe you under achieved as an analyst, ever think of that?

2 comments:

kpfalv said...

B-Dalt, Love the article. Can't wait to see who you go after next. Keep up the good work.

Joe Namath said...

SI sports writers are nothing but a bunch of drunks. I should know I am not only one but I am proud of it. Come here and gimmieee a little kisss. xxooxx
Joe