NEWS FROM THE NOSEBLEEDS

College Football; The New Recruits

2007-08-29T14:16:00.000-07:00

Analyze the Analyst: Rating Football Recruits...

So who did we sign? How many 5- Star prospects did we get? What are our recruits ranked nationally? Those are the question we as as fans of our favorite school. We ask these questions from our bars tools during the long off season that is in between the conclusion of the national championship, and kick off in September. If our school was lucky enough to land those highly touted recruits, we raise our beer in cheers to the season that is to come. If you are a student, alumni, or simply a fan, you may have raised a glass in anticipation to the signing of these top recruits. begining their college football careers this season.

All of these recruits are rated as 5-Star Prospects by Scout.com, the numerical rankings nationally were published by Athlon Sports magazine, in their preseason preview:

USC - The Trojans recruit Running Back, Joe McNight, comes to Southern California as the #2 rated recruit in the nation.
Florida - The Gators landed the 16th rated recruit in the nation, in Defensive Tackle, Torrey Davis.

Ohio State - The Buckeyes signed the 25th ranked player nationally when they signed Eugene Clifford, Safety.

Illinois - Ron Zook is brining the 26th best player, Martez Wilson, Defensive End, to Champagne this season.

Florida- the defending national champs also signed the 40th rated player overall, when they signed Line Backer, Lorenzo Edwards.

So this means these guys are going to be All Americans, right? To land a four star recruit is a big deal, but a 5-Star guy, well he’s a slam dunk right? And numbers wise, signing a guy off the top 100 list is the measure of a great recruit, so the Top-40, well that has to be the cream of the crop doesnt it?

Don’t get all teary eyed in your beer just yet, and tell your buddy to stop singing we are the champions on his bar stool next to you. Here is a list of the players, in 2002, ranked at the same spots as these highly touted prep players, as Scout.com 5-Star Players, and numerically by Athlon Sports.

2002 - Prep All America, 5-Stars that were:

Prep Ranking #2 Overall
Ryan Moore, WR - University of Miami, Hurricanes.

Ryan Moore was rated by many analysts as the #2 recruit overall in the entire nation, behind only Vince Young. While Vince Young filled the #1 ranking better than anyone else in the class possibly could have, Moore did anything but live up to expectations. He caught 16 balls a year for his final three seasons, and was suspended by the University for the first 8 games of his senior campaign. He was not drafted in the 2007 draft.

Prep Ranking #16 Overall
Brandon Jeffries, OL - University of Tennessee

Brandon Jeffries spent two years as a Volunteer, but never played in one game. He was never eligible there, transfered to NC State, but could not become eligible there as well. He played for a season at a community college in North Carolina, and finished up his career starting 11 games for the Division II Newbury college Indians, at right guard. He is currently out of football.

Prep Ranking #25 Overall
Dishon Platt, WR - Florida State University

Platt did not play one down in college football anywhere. He failed to gain admission to FSU, transferred to South Florida, but failed to gain eligibility there, and dropped out of school

Prep Ranking #28 Overall
Marquis Johnson, WR - University of Texas

Johnson failed to qualify academically at Texas, and then spent a year at a community college in Kansas. Transferred to Texas Tech with three yeas left, and played only two there. He played in one game in 2004, and in ‘05 caught 13 balls for 74 yards, and 1 TD.

Prep Ranking #40 Overall
Justin Zwick, QB - Ohio State University

Zwick chose to stay home, and attend OSU, where the Buckeye faithful had him pegged to be the second coming of Johnny Unitas. He didn’t quit live up to the hype. He was beaten out by a player recruited as an ‘athlete’ named Troy Smith, who went on to win the Heisman. He was a career back-up at QB.

Don't Believe The Hype, Anything Can Happen

There is not one guy who actually sees all of the high school players play, and ranks him based on what he sees. These rankings are driven by hype, and don’t get too excited about them. Also, out of the 2002 Athlon top 40 recruits list, only two players went on to become 1st round NFL Draft Picks, the aforementioned Young, and Oregon’s Haloti Ngata, ranked 12th as a prepster.

So throw those recruiting lists out this Saturday, come to the bar with your teams colors on, and expect anything. Some guy from Cleveland named Smith, who no one was talking about, could dethrone that next best thing, and one day win the Heisman. Thats why we they play the games.

Will The Browns Offense 'OUT SCORE' The Amount of 'FAN ARRESTS' Per Game This Season?

2007-08-22T15:57:00.000-07:00

Just Our Thoughts...

According to the Plain Dealer Sports Section on August 22, the Cleveland Browns are reporting that there were 7 Arrests of Fans, in the stands, at the Browns second preseason game at Cleveland Browns stadium against the Detroit Lions. This number is down from 8 Fan Arrests in the opening preseason game. It was also noted, that in addition to these arrests, there were 86 other, additional, fan ejections in week 1. There were 74 additional Fan Ejections in Week 2.

The Browns are publishing these statistics all season, in attempt to improve fan behavior at games. They should be more focused on the offense.

We here at the Nosebleeds, will be following these statistics as the year goes on to see one thing...

We want to see if the Browns Offense can outscore the amount of Fan Arrests on a per game basis during the regular season.

Its gonna be close, and the Las Vegas money is indicating the 'Arrests per Game' currently has a slight edge over the point production of the Browns Offense.

The Preseason numbers look like this...

Week 1 - Kansas City

Browns Offense: 9 Points scored (Barclay's Special Teams TD gave them 16)

Fan Arrests Week 1: 8

*The Browns Offense edged out a week 1 win over the Fan Arrests by the skin of their teeth. If the beer guy in the upper deck of the Dawg Pound would have served one more beer before last call, the Fan Arrests surely could have turned 2 or 3 of the 86 people ejected, into a Fan that got Arrested, and given the Fan Arrests a win.

Week 2 - Detroit

Browns Offense: 20

Fan Arrest: 7

*The Fan Arrests seemed to have this contest won, until Brady Quinn entered the game for the first time with 9:20 left in the 4th. With the Arrests clinging to a 7-6 lead over the Browns offense, Brady Quinn was able to rally the Browns for 2 TD's against Detroits 3rd string defense.

The regular season...

Not too many people Tail Gate for Preseason football. They will when the regular season begins, and with the excitement of the real game and Tail Gating at its zenith, expect the arrest numbers to increase in the regular season. If the number of Fan Arrests increases to 15 or 16, expect the Browns offense to be in trouble. The Browns offense put up 14.9 points per game last season

Can The Browns Offense Out Rush the Fan Ejections?

Another stat we will be tracking is if the Browns Running Game is able to 'Out Rush' the number of fan ejections in a given game. The Browns rushed for 83.4 yards a game last season. There were 86 Fan Ejections in week 1 of the Preseason, and 74 Fan Ejections in week 2. Its gonna be close.

No Luck O' the Irish For Brady, He's Just Good

2007-08-19T17:48:00.000-07:00

Just Our Thoughts: Brady Quinn Was Over-exposed, Will Be a Solid Pro

Brady Quinn looked real good last night in his NFL debut for the Cleveland Browns. He entered the game with 9:20 on the 4th quarter clock for the first time since South Bend, and led the team down the field in a commanding fashion. He threw for 155 yards, on 13-20 passing, and connected on 2 touchdown passes of 6 yards each. His final drive began with 1:52 left on the clock and he took the Browns 92 yards for the score. His reads were quick, and right, and he was the best thing the Dawg Pound has seen behind center since Bernie Kosar was in the prime of his career. (My apologies to Ty Detmer, Spergeon Winn, and Don Strock)

Now the fact of the matter is Quinn did do his damage against the Detroit Lions 3rd and 4th string. And it is true, if you can’t play defense for the Lions, you cant play defense in the NFL. In addition to that, it is also true that the Lions were playing what looked to be a ‘prevent the prevent’ defense, almost 30 yards off the ball at times. But nevertheless, Quinn was also playing with the Browns 3rd and 4th string offensive players. And it is safe to say that, over the last few years, if you cant play offense for the Browns than you cant play offense in the NFL. It is also true that 4 of Quinn’s incompletions were intentional spikes (making him 13-16, 2 TD’s). The kid looked good, and the kid looked NFL ready, just like he told us he was.

Quinn’s performance is an example of something that is becoming common in sports today. He is an example of an athlete who was over-exposed on the collegiate ranks, and unfairly criticized. We have seen every game Quinn has ever played in college. Every game at Notre Dame is on national television. We have seen his good days, and we have seen his bad days. We watched him grow, than flourish, and then forced to live up to ridiculous hype as a senior.

We have seen Brady Quinn praised when he won, and criticized when he lost - 41-40. Did Alex Smith have to live up to that at Utah? Had the common fan heard of him until his senior year? He was the first pick overall in the draft. Did Jay Cutler have to live up to that level of scrutiny at Vanderbilt? Are there the same amount of sports fans in this country that hate Utah as much as they hate Notre Dame? How about all of those Vandy haters? People didn’t know who these guys were, and gave them the benefit of the doubt. Everyone knew Brady, and saw him loose to USC, and Ohio State, and said he wasn’t good in the big game. Brady didn't cover Dwayne Jarret, and Ted Ginn though.

I think Brady slipped on draft day the way he did because he was over exposed as a collegiate athlete. It is the same reason behind why certain foreign basketball players get drafted over American collegiate stars. It is my opinion that their will be 21 NFL teams that will wish they picked Brady Quinn in last years draft when it is all said and done. And last night’s Preseason debut is just a glimpse of what’s to come. But what do I know, I’m just a guy from the Nosebleeds.

Rating a Ref Named Ronnie

2007-08-17T15:40:00.000-07:00

Analyze the Analyst: Ronnie Nunn; The Director of NBA Officiating, Rated Donaghy in Top Tier of NBA Refs

The Tim Donaghy case has led me to one conclusion. Ronnie Nunn is the worst referee, umpire, official, line judge, or back judge to ever officiate over a sporting event.

That volunteer dad that umped his kid’s 11-12 year old mighty mite game last night to a chorus of boos from the soccer mom’s turned baseball fans is better than Nunn.

And that sophomore in highschool that referreed your kids CYO game last winter, yeah the one that forgot to call any fouls - on either team - during third quarter, and only stopped play to go grab the ball off the stage - that kid was actually a little better than Nunn as well.

Nunn wouldn’t know officiating if it slapped him in the face with a whistle. Why? No, not because he is blind, failed an eye exam, forgot his glasses, fell asleep during the game, or is an obvious alumnus of the opposing team.

(above is a picture of Nunn as a ref, now in the league office as the NBA's Director of Officiating)

And it has nothing to do with the 19 years he spent patrolling the NBA hardwood either as an average ref (according to Ric Bucher's ESPN the mag report).

It has to do with his rating system for the NBA refs. Ronnie Nunn is the Director of NBA Officials. He oversees, and reviews, and rates the performance of the NBA’s refs.

He has, for the past four years, rated Tim Donaghy as a ‘Top Tier’ NBA official. During those last four years, according to court documents made public this week, Donaghy has been fixing the games he’s reffed.

But Ronnie Nunn thinks he’s doing a great job of reffing. Huh?

To be clear, I am not saying that he should have known Donaghy was fixing games, betting on games, or in bed with the Gambino crime family, as is alleged in court documents published on AOL.com, and newspapers everywhere, earlier this week. I give him a pass on that.

But I am asking WHY wasnt Donaghy, AT LEAST, rated as a POOR PERFORMER, under the Ronnie Nunn officiating handbook, and guidelines. Can’t a guy that is deliberately fixing games, at least earn a ‘lower tier ranking', or even a ‘middle tier ranking’? How about average? Maybe even barely meets standards? But no, he is a Top Tier guy. Does a guy fixing games really have to be rated as one of the best refs? Also, refs are REWARDED with their good performance by being assigned to playoff games at the years end. Donaghy has worked the playoffs each of the last four years. Wow.

It was reported through court documents on August 15th that Tim Donaghy plead guilty to “conspiracy to engage in wire fraud and transmitting betting information through interstate commerce.” It was said that “he started making NBA bets four years ago, and he didnt hesitate to wager on games he worked “

Despite the fact that he “did not hesitate to wager on games he worked” David Stern said that “Donaghy was rated in the top tier of officials, and there was nothing suspicious about the frequency of his foul calls.”

A game between the Celtics and the 76ers was cited in court documents. Donaghy worked the game. The point spread moved 2 points before the game went off the board - thats a lot to non-gamblers. Boston went from a 1.5 point favorite, to a 3.5 point favorite. Boston won by 20. The next day it was reported that Donaghy met with gamblers in PA, and received a cash payment.

This was a regular season game. Ronnie Nunn decided that Tim Donaghy work the playoffs as reward for being a Top Tier Ref.

He was assigned to work in the second round of the playoffs, Phoenix - San Antonio, Western Conference Finals game. Robert Horry split Nash’s nose open, and went on to win the series, and the NBA title. The city of Phoenix is reportedly looking into filing additonal charges against Donaghy for his work during that game.

It wouldn't be so bad if Nunn at least determined that Donaghy wasn't good enough to work the playoffs one of the four years he was rigging games. But other refs stayed at home, as Nunn assigned that 'pros pro' Donaghy to go work the NBA Playoff Games. To conclude, I do have to say that I am not a referee of any kind, but I gotta think that Joey Crawford, Dick Bavetta, Bennet Salvatore, and about every other ref in the league could do about a thousand time better job rating refs than Ronnie Nunn's done. But what do I know, I’m just a guy from the Nosebleeds.

2007 NCAA Football Preview / 2006 Review of the Preview

2007-08-11T09:53:00.000-07:00

Analyze the Analysts: USA Today Preseason Polls
Reviewing the USA Today Preseason Polls for 2006
Comparing to the Year End Polls of 2006
A College Football Discussion
USA Today Preaseaon Polls 2007 - What this all Means

Let me be the first to say that September 1st represents all that is good with the world of sports. For on this day, the 2007 college football season kicks off, and is underway. Along with that is the pagentry, the excitement, the 4th quarter finishes, and the hopes of championship glory being played out every Saturday afternoon before our eyes. In order to look out into next season, this edition of Analyze the Analyst first looks back to this date in history, the preseason of 2006.

We will examine the USA Today 2006 preseason rankings, who was in, who was out, and who had to loose 5 and 6 times in a row before they were forced to leave the top 25. We will also take a look at what teams had to be near perfect to enter the top twenty five. We will also ask a couple of questions...are preseason college football rankings fair, why do certain teams seem to get every opportunity possible to succeed under this formula, and who are teams likely to fall out, and fall into this years rankings when the year comes to a close.

Last years 2006 preseason rankings - USA Today
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. (tie) Notre Dame
3. (tie) Southern California
5. Oklahoma
6. Auburn
7. West Virginia
8. Florida
9. LSU
10. Florida State **
11. Miami (Fla.) **
12. California
13. Louisville
14. Georgia **
15. Michigan
16. Virginia Tech
17. Iowa **
18. Clemson **
19. Penn State
20. Oregon **
21. TCU
22. Nebraska **
23. Tennessee
24. Alabama **
25. Texas Tech **

In the Final top Twenty Five Poll, 9 Were Not Ranked Anymore...who was out?

Without geting into the specifics of who finished where in the top twenty five, and things like the actual national champ, Florida, was ranked 8th with 7 teams ahead of them in the preseason, and the fact that Notre Dame, preseason 3rd actually finished 19th, or the fact that the teams such as Wisconsin and Boise State, who actually finished the season ranked 5th and 6th respectively, were actually not preseason ranked at all, we want to first look at the who is 'in', and who is 'out', as far as preseason rankings go. There were nine teams that were ranked in the USA Today Top Twenty Five in the preseason, that did not finish in the top twenty five at the years end (after the bowl games/BCS).

The teams that did not finish in the final USA Today Top Twenty Five are indicated with (**) next to their name in the rankings above.

Those Teams, Their Record, Year in Review are as Follows:

Iowa - (6-7) After Iowa beat Purdue on Oct. 7th, they were 5-1 and their preseason ranking did not look all that bad. Their only loss at that point was to OSU. However, they went on to loose 6 of their next 7,losing too Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes only win in that span was against Northern Illinois. However, they had a legitimate bowl match up, unlike Miami and FSU, loosing to Texas by 2, 26-24.

Alabama - (6-7) Their losses were to good teams at least, but three of their six wins included Louisiana Monroe, Duke, and Florida International. They lost their bowl game to Oregon State by 3, and lost their coach, Mike Shula, in the process.

FSU - (7-6) Finished the regular season with a 6-6 overall record. Finished 3-5 in the ACC, saving a winning season with an Emerald Bowl win over UCLA. After loosing to Maryland on Oct-28, they were 4-4 overall, 2-4 in the league, and officially out of contention. They beat Miami in week 1, in one of the worst displays of offense by both teams. They also beat Rice, Troy, and Duke, Virginia, and Western Michigan, to get to 6-6, before winning the Emerald Bowl. Coach Bobby Bowden had to fire his own kid as offensive coordinator at years end.

Miami - (7-6) 6-6 in the regular season. Earned 7th win, and winning season by beating Nevada 21-20 in the Boise Idaho Bowl Game, on December 31st. Larry Coker was fired. They beat Duke, Florida International, Florida A&M, North Carolina, and Houston for five of their 7 wins. Boston College was their 6th and best win, 17-14. They also had the brawl of the season verse FIU, no points for that however.

Oregon - (7-6) They lost to BYU by 30 in their bowl game. They were 7-2 on Nov., 4, then finished the season loosing 4 straight, including a loss to Arizona.

Clemson - (8-5) They had an up and down year, but ended the season down losing to Kentucky in bowl game 28-20. Looked good early, then fell apart, tough losing to Kentucky.

Nebraska, Georgia, Texas Tech - these three teams did experience some disappointments in 2006. Finished the season unranked, but were noted in the ‘Others Receiving Votes’ section of the Top Twenty Five, so...not too bad.

The USA Today, Year End 2006 Top Twenty Five

1. FLORIDA (13-1)
2. OHIO ST (12-1)
3. LSU (11-2)
4. USC (11-2)
5. WISCONSIN (12-1) *
6. BOISE ST (13-0) *
7. LOUISVILLE (12-1)
8. AUBURN (11-2)
9. MICHIGAN (11-2)
10. WEST VIRGINIA (11-2)
11. OKLAHOMA (11-3)
12. RUTGERS (11-2) *
13. TEXAS (10-3)
14. CALIFORNIA (10-3)
15. BYU (11-2) *
16. ARKANSAS (10-4) *
17. WAKE FOREST (11-3) *
18. VIRGINIA TECH (10-3)
19. NOTRE DAME (10-3)
20. BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) *
21. TCU (11-2)
22. OREGON ST (10-4) *
23. TENNESSEE (9-4)
24. HAWAII (11-3) *
25. PENN ST (9-4)

9 teams that finished in the USA Today Final Top Twenty Five, were not ranked at all in the preseason.

Of the nine teams that finished the season ranked, only to be unranked in August, three of those teams were not from a power conference. Boise State, Hawaii, and BYU.

Boise had to go a perfect 13-0, and beat Oklahoma to get in. Other surprise teams included Wisconsin, Arkansas, Boston college, Wake Forest, Rutgers, and Oregon State

The nine teams that were not ranked in the preseason USA Today Poll, but finished that were are indicated with a single (*) next to their name.

The highest ranked of those teams, Boise State, had to go 13-0 to get there, including a Bowl Game win over Oklahoma, preseason ranked 5th, and ended the season after that loss ranked 11th. Hawaii had to go 11-3 to sneak in, and BYU had to go 11-2 to sneak into the top 15. Wisconsin came out of nowhere to finish fifth, Rutgers shocked the country, BC, Arkansas, Oregon State, and Wake also played their way into the top twenty five.

The discussion

Preseason Rankings are unfair

We, here at News From the Nosebleeds, believe that the preseason rankings are unfair. We believe this for two reasons.

The first is because is because unlike any other sport’s preseason rankings, MLB, NFL, NCAABB, these rankings impacts tremendously where a team can and will finish at the end of the year without even snapping the first football, in the first game of the year. These preseason rankings automatically give the teams that earn these rankings in the offseason a head start over teams that did not get the votes necessary to put them in the preseason polls. In pro sports, the preseason rankings are more for fun discussion, verbal sparring, and give sports fans something to talk about while play is postponed for the offseason. You have Playoffs in the NFL, and MLB, and entrance to these playoffs are based solely on a teams record. That is fair, and gives every team, even the Browns, Raiders, Devil Rays, and Royals, as fair a chance of theoretically winning the Super Bowl or World Series as the Patriots, Colts, Yankees and Red Sox. In NCAA BB, preseason rankings do somewhat impact a teams chances to make the NCAA tournament, but they also play 30 games in a given season. That is enough time, and games to allow the rankings to adjust, and develop during the course of the year, and obviously they do have a 65 team tournament at the end of the year that does decide the champion, and even the top twenty five in a more legitimate fashion. But in football, they only play about twelve games, and a team with a preseason ranking of say -10 - for example can loose their first two games and still hang around in the top twenty five for a while. And without a playoff in NCAA FB, a team like Boise State can beat everyone that will agree to play them, sneak into the BCS with an ‘At Large’ berth, beat a team ranked as a preseason top five team, ranked in the top ten at the time in Oklahoma, and still not sniff an opportunity to play for the title, that is unfair.

The second reason that preseason rankings are unfair is because they are done too early. While they do give teams with a ranking an unfair advantage, they do not give a fair enough indication of how the team will perform ‘this year.’ Just because the University of Miami has won National titles in the past, and just because they had running backs named Edgerrin James, wideouts named Irvin, QB’s named Dorsey, and tight ends named Winslow, doesnt mean they have those players this year, or will win this year with the players they have. Giving Miami a preseason ranking of 11 in August, looks ridiculous at the years end. And I know, it is tough to pick everything exactly correct in the beginning of the year, I understand that. But if College Football waited until say - October - after a month of the season has transpired to come out with their first polls, or first rankings, I think that they would be a little closer to the truth. The advantage given to teams arbitrarily at the begginning of the year would resemble the actual season a little more acurately.

The example of Miami - Preseason Ranked #11 - Unfair Advantage

For example, in Miami’s case, after watching the nationally televised first game of the year, we all would have realized that their offense couldnt score on anyone not named Florida A&M. They beat A&M 51-10 in week 2, but only scored 14 against Houston on September 30th, beating them 14-13 for their two wins in September. They lost to FSU (preseason ranked 10th, but finished 7-6) in the opener 13-10, and got buried by Louisville 31-7 in week 3. On October 1st Miami was 2-2, with 0 quality wins.

But sadly, the reason that College FB will not do this - wait until October 1st to come out with their first rankings of the year - is because of television and the ratings that a #10-#11 match-up results in. We all thought, according to the polls, that in week one we were watching a match-up of two of the top eleven teams in the country when Miami played Florida State, but looking back, we were actually watching two regular season 6-6 teams go head to head.

What is even worse about that, is at the time FSU earned what appears to be a Quality Win by edging out Miami.

Flip Side - Wisconsin, A Disadvantage

Wisconsin did not do anything in August to lose a football game. Yeah they had a knew coach, but they should be penalized for this by not being ranked? They played the same schedule as OSU - the two did not meet in the Big Ten - if not better. What if Wisconsin was starting the season ranked say...12th, or 8th, or 20th. They would not have had as much ground to cover, coming from the land of the unranks to 5th, and maybe they sneak into the national championship game...who knows. Instead they get as high as 5th.

A Playoff Would Cure All Ills

What would rectify this situation is a playoff. Now people will counter my arguement about the Coaches Poll and the AP poll coming out too early by saying that it is the BCS that indicates the real champion, and the BCS doesnt come out until mid season. However, the Coaches Poll and the AP Poll are major, major, indicators of how a team earns points under the BCS system. They fairest way to do this is to use these polls to dictate a playoff. Take the top 32, 24, or 16 teams as it stands in the BCS at years end and let those teams play it out.

Give Wisconsin, a team that had to come from being unranked to 5th a chance to play for the National Title. Give Bosie State, a team that just beat Oklahoma, a chance to play for it all. Give BYU, a team that had to go 11-2 to get into the top 15 a chance to see how they match-up against LSU, or USC. They would get killed you say, right. Because they cant compete against those teams. You probably also would have told me at the beginnig of last year that Iowa, and Alabama, who both finished 6-7 would have been at least .500. And you also would have told me that that same team, BYU, who wasn’t ranked at the beginning of the year would lose in a bowl match-up with preseason ranked #20 Oregon - but you would have been wrong on both accounts.

In fact, BYU beat Oregon on Thursday December 21st, in the Pioneer Pure Vision Las Vegas Bowl, 38-8. Oregon tacked on 8 in the 4th quarter, while trailing 38-0. Did anyone think Rutgers was going to be good? Well they were, lets see if they can take the #12 ranking they earned and run the table in the post season - who knows what would happen.

A Look Ahead - 2007 USA Today Preseason Rankings

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Michigan
6. West Virginia
7. Wisconsin
8. Oklahoma
9. Virginia Tech
10. Ohio State
11. Louisville
12. California
13. Georgia
14. Auburn
15. Tennesse
16. Rutgers
17. UCLA
18. Penn State
19. Nebraska
20. Arkansas
21. Florida State
22. TCU
23. Boise State
24. Hawaii
25. Texas A&M

A Note for the Non-BCS Support

The first of the three non-BCS schools appears on this preseason rankings list at #22. The TCU Horned Frogs earn the most respect of the non BCS schools, followed by Boise State at 23, and Hawaii at 24.

In 2006's preseason top twenty five the non Power Conference schools to earn a ranking were TCU, this time ranked 21st, as the highest ranked of the Non-BCS schools, followed by and joined with, no other Non BCS school in the preseason top twenty five. They were the only one.

At 2006's years end, Boise State went undefeated to finish 6th, BYU 11-2 to finish #15, and Hawaii, who went 11-3 to finish #24. TCU ironically enough, finished in the exact spot they were projected to be, finishing the 2006 season ranked #21.

Even with its faults, college football is still the best. Every Saturday during the season is like a repetition of holidays as far as we here at News From the Nosebleeds are concerned and we are looking forward to it. We are looking to seen how Darren McFadden fairs at Arkansas, Jimmy Clausen at Notre Dame, how Tebow looks as the main QB with Chris Leak gone, and rooting for as many non BCS schools as possible to blow up the top twenty five.

Stay tuned to News From the Nosebleeds for an October 1st 2007 review of how the preseason rankings look with a month of season under our respective football belts.

Playboy vs. Sports Illustrated - NFL Predictions

2007-08-05T12:27:00.001-07:00

Analyze the Analyst: Who's 2007 NFL Preview Is More Accurate: Playboy or Sports Illustrated? Based on 2006 Results the answer is...

With the NFL season about to kick off, an interesting question you thought may never be asked, has to be asked. Who knows more about the NFL, Playboy or Sports Illustrated? A no-contest right? Are you serious? While Playboy may be an institution in America, with good reason, for its blondes, bombshells, and centerfolds, it clearly deals with sports as an afterthought...doesn't it? Almost a gimmick in a way. I mean, 'I read Playboy for the articles,' is about the oldest joke there is...who believes that? How about, 'I read Playboy for the NFL insight.' How would that fly with your wife or girlfriend. Well, maybe not too well, and you might be in the doghouse for a little while, but you also might be telling the truth - sort of.

In order to gauge who was a better prognosticator of the pigskin, our News From the Nosebleeds staff researched the picks by both publications by first diving deep into the Nosebleeds Library, and then devising a scoring system to compare the accuracy of the 2006 NFL predictions, by both the Sports Illustrated analysts and the Playboy bunnies...I mean analysts.

Scoring System
Correctly identifying the actual Super Bowl Champion = 20 points.
Correctly identifying the actual Conference Champions (AFC/NFC) =10 points.
Correctly identifying the actual Divisional Champs (i.e. AFC north, NFC east, etc.) = 6 points
Correctly identifying the actual Wild Card teams = 3 points (for each of 4 teams)
If you correctly identified a ‘playoff team’ (but incorrectly identified them as either the Divisional Champ, or Wild Card qualifier) = 2 points.

Scoring Results
Under this scoring system Hugh Hefner’s Playboy Magazine, beat Peter King’s NFL Preview by a score of 37-26. Playboy correctly picked 7 of the 12 actual playoff teams versus Sports Illustrated’s 5 of 12. Playboy also correctly picked 1 of the 2 conference champions (the AFC’s Indianapolis Colts who actually won the Superbowl) versus Sports Illustrated’s 0. Neither magazine correctly identified the actual Superbowl Champ, both magazines selecting the Carolina Panthers.

How they Scored

Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated earned 12 points with their AFC selections picking the Colts and Patriots to win their division (6 points per pick). They misfired by selecting the Steelers and Broncos as the other Divisional Champs, and missed on both Wild Card by selecting the Bengals, and Jaguars.

In the NFC Sports Illustrated scored 14 points by selecting the Bears and Seahawks as Divisional Winners. (6 points each) They misfired by selecting the Panthers to win their division, and earned partial credit (2 points) by selecting the NY Giants to win their division (they got in as a Wild Card). SI earned nothing by selecting Redskins and the Falcons as Wild Card teams.

SI earned nothing as well the rest of the way out by pitting the Broncos verse Panthers in the Super Bowl.

Total: 26 points

Playboy
Playboy earned 10 points in the AFC. Six came by selecting New England to win the AFC East (6 points). Four came by selecting the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West (they were a Wild Card = 2 points) and Indianapolis to earn a Wild Card berth (they were a Divisional Winner = 2 points). In the AFC Playboy picked and missed scoring opportunities with Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Miami.

In the NFC Playboy scored 17 points. They nailed Chicago, and Seattle down as Division winners (6 each) and earned 3 points by selecting the New York Giants accurately as a Wild Card representative. They also earned 2 points by identifying Dallas as a Division Winner (actually were the other Wild Card Representative).

Playboy would go on to add 10 points by accurately prognosticating that Indianapolis would represent the AFC in the Superbowl. They earned nothing for their selection of Carolina as the NFC rep, and no additional points for the fact that Indy actually did win the game. Playboy selected Carolina as the Superbowl champ.

Total Score: 37

Further Scoring Breakdown

With only the scoring the Playoff Qualifiers, Playboy beat Sports Illustrated by a score of 27-26. However, Playboy would go on to seal the deal, by adding 10 points with the selection of Indianapolis to represent the AFC. Indy did, and Playboy wins. Playboy 37 - Sports Illustrated 26. Who would have thought that...maybe Pamela Anderson does know her football after all.

If Barry Gets an Asterisk So Does Babe Ruth

2007-08-03T14:06:00.000-07:00

The Man
For the longest time, as a sports fan and baseball purist, I would say that I didn't much care for Barry Bonds. He appeared in the media to be an egotistical, selfish, mean person, who carried with him a substantial amount evidence that would point towards use of an illegal substance, possibly steroids. All of this is still possibly true, and lets say for a second that hey, maybe he did do steroids. And for the sake of this argument, lets just go ahead and say that he does. With that said, I don't think an asterisk is called for, or even warranted, next to the Home Run Record that Barry Bonds will inevitably hold in the coming days, unless you want to put an asterisk next to Babe Ruth too.

The Legend
Babe Ruth, the home run king, the legend, the father of modern baseball, he has 714 home runs to his credit. Has anyone in the sports media, any baseball analyst ever suggested that Babe Ruth deserves an asterisk by his name in the record books? What, Babe Ruth, why, he is the 'sultan of swat', he is the 'greatest of all time', why on earth would he deserve an asterisk?? Why, I will tell you why. Not because he put up his numbers on 'hot dogs and beer' as they say, but because he did not play against the best players of his era. He was the best baseball player in the major leagues, while he played. True. But the major leagues at that time included only half of America's population. When Babe Ruth played African American players were banned from the majors! There were no Latin players, there were no Asian player,s and more importantly there were certain players from New York, Chicago, and anywhere else in the USA that were not allowed to compete against the Babe because of their skin color. Would Babe Ruth have hit all those home runs if he had to bat against a Satchell Paige during his prime, four times in a given game? Might a Willie Mays type player have robbed Mr. Ruth of a homer or four during his playing days? Most likely yes. But you don't hear this argument for an asterisk in this case, Ruth's mark is considered hallowed. Should it be?

The Choice
If you still don't want to give Babe Ruth an asterisk on his mark, than you shouldn't give one to Barry either. Why? Because. While in Babe's day there was a league rule banning people of color from being allowed to play in the majors, during Barry's there was no league rule that banned steroids from baseball. Is Barry the only player to do steroids during this era? No way, that is why they call it the 'steroid era.' They don't call the era of baseball that Rollie Fingers played in the 'handle bar mustache era', because one guy, Fingers, had a 'handle bar mustache.' And they don't call this the steroid era because one guy, Barry Bonds, did steroids. I don't think we will ever know how many guys were on the juice, but it wasn't just the so called stars. While we know guys like Conseco and Palmeiro took 'roids, it can be argued that Sosa and McGwire did as well. While we don't know for sure that Sosa or McGwire did, we do know for sure that McGwire's congress testimony about 'refusing to talk about the past' and 'being here today before congress to talk about the future' is the most hilarious testimony I have ever heard. And on that day as well, the once often quoted Sosa, forgot how to speak English - convenient. But while these stars are associated with steroids, there are also some bums that have been busted. Neifi Perez being the latest, the 34 year old was busted again coming off a 25 game suspension, for 80 games. Perez's numbers however, are not too hot, even with 'roids. He hit .172 in 64 at bats this year. Which is an example of my point, Bonds is not the only player in his time to use steroids, he just happens to be the best player of an era - the steroid era. And oh yeah, what if it turns out he hit the majority of his homers off pitchers...who where on the juice as well! The Indians had a reliever that was suspended a couple of years ago, and he's so unimportant of a player I cant even remember his name.

The Discussion - Chris Rock
The discussion here about Bonds is part of a larger issue, that we will dive into in further analyze the analyst columns, but ask me this before I conclude. Did I come up with this point about Babe Ruth myself, or did I hear it somewhere? I heard it somewhere, but not from Buster Olney or Peter Gammons, or Tim Kurkian, or Steve Philips, or Ken Rosenthal. I heard it from Chris Rock. The comedian Chris Rock was on Bob Costas' HBO show recently, and he made the point about Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds. I was amazed by the comment. Amazed in part at my own ignorance. I had never put two and two together before. Of all that I have heard, seen, and read about Ruth, I had never heard that point made. Obviously, I should have figured it out before, pretty blatant that Ruth played in an all white majors, but I just never thought of that before. And I wonder, how many of us really have? But don't blame Babe, he was just the best baseball player of an era. And so is Barry Bonds.

The Homerun
Bonds would go on to hit 755 this past weekend. He hit it off San Diego Padres pitcher Clay Hensley, in front of the San Diego fans.

Two things that are interesting about this. Despite what analysts, including ESPN's Steve Phillips, thought would happen in the stands, the Padre fans cheered the homerun. Whether they cheered Barry, cheered the feat, or cheered the fact that they were there to witness history, may never be known. But we did here cheers from the fans, and I think that was good.

The second thing that was, we will say ironic, was in regards to who Barry hit number 755 off of. Clay Hensley. Never heard of him, you say. I didn't either, and I suppose this will be the most significant thing he ever does in the major leagues as a pitcher. However, what is ironic is that Clay Hensley, when pitching in Triple-A, tested positive for...steriods. True story.

Fantasy Baseball - Reviewing the Previews - Mid-Season Report

2007-07-11T19:28:00.000-07:00

Analyze the Analyst: Fantasy Baseball Previews
Question at the All Star Break: Fantasy Owners...Did You Draft Hunter Pence??

Fantasy Baseball once was a hobby, now is a past time. Every year people all over the country gather to begin another season of Fantasy Baseball, by designing their draft needs, discussing the league rules, and then drafting their teams. Fantasy Baseball was the original of the Fantasy sports, and in its truest form, it is played in a Rotisserie format. I am in a Rotisserie league, and in order to earn points your team needs to claim dominance in a particular category, Home Runs, RBI, Batting average, etc. You win points by having the most in a particular category, team with the most homers gets 12, second most 11, and so on. With that said, there are a lot of different ways to analyze who the best players would be to compile a roster. Without getting too far into that, in its simplest form, it would help to have as many guys as possible that lead the league in a particular category. Whether he steals bases or not, Prince Fielder and his NL leading 29 home runs at the All Star break is going to be one of the better players on your team. So with that in mind, Fantasy players will seek help, guidance, and expertise by reading preseason magazines. These magazines use a combination of past performance, and predicted performance, to determine who would be the best player to draft, second best, on down the line. In this edition of Analyze the Analyst, we wanted to take a look at CBS Sportsline’s Preseason Fantasy Report, as baseball pauses in the aftermath of the 2007 All Star Game, and look at the production thus far during the season, versus the prediction of how these players should fair. To be fair, we do understand there is a whole half of baseball yet to be played, and the second half is a whole different animal. Also to be fair, there are a lot of preseason magazines that are published, and we picked CBS Sportsline to analyze only because it is the magazine that I bought, and the magazine that I used when I drafted my team - team Harry Doyle.

The first question we have to ask is this: Did you draft Hunter Pence. All the Houston Astros' phenom has done this year is lead the NL in batting average, hitting at a .342 clip. In CBS Sportsline's Fantasy Baseball Preseason Edition Pence was not included in the list of top 300 overall best available players. In a ranking of the best outfielders available, Pence was ranked 147th, behind the likes of Cleveland Indians farmhand Shin-So Choo (92), and NY Mets prospect Lastings Milledge (105).

Cleveland Indians Pitcher Fausto Carmona, was also not in the Preseason top 300 players, and was ranked as the 187th best starting pitcher overall. He’s 5th in the AL so far with 10 wins. Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Ian Snell, was also not in the CBS top 300, and was ranked as the 96th best starting pitcher overall. He is currently 5th in the NL in era, coming into the halfway point at 2.93. Even more of a surprise to fantasy prognosticators in the pitching department is A’s pitcher Chad Gaudin; who cannot be found in the top 300 overall players, or on the list of the 201 best starting pitchers available. In eleven starts this season (8-3) Gaudin is 4th in era in the AL at 2.88. We at Nosebleeds hope you didn't take the 2nd highest rated pitcher, and 14th highest rated player overall in the preseason, Chris Carpenter of the Cards, over any of these three guys, but everyone in the world probably did. Tough break Carpenter owners - cant predict injury.

We are not fools here at Nosebleeds, we do realize that these are names you might have never heard prior to the ‘07 season. We just wanted to point the above out. We know the people who took fliers on these guys may not have even known who there were taking - diamonds in the rough we’ll call it, or a lucky breaks. But how about a few names you did know. Did you take them. What about Ken Griffey Jr. Preseason ranked as the 192nd best available player, and the 53rd best outfielder available. You might have felt better on draft day picking Marlins outfielder Josh Willingham (preseason 47th best outfielder available, 6 spots ahead of Griffey). At the All Star Break though, Griffey’s .286 batting average and 23 bombs (3rd in Hrs in NL) do look a little better that Willingham’s .261 and 11 - who would have thought that ??
If not Griffey, did you draft Magglio Ordonez? I did - but to be honest he was the third outfielder I took... after selecting Juan Pierre and Adam Dunn - then I got Magglio - late. I like to think I knew something, but I didn’t. All I knew was that he was the 79th best player available, and the 24th best outfielder. He was one of the best outfielders still on the board. Johnny Damon, the 18th rated outfielder (and 58th best player overall) was long gone. So I took Magglio, and got his lead leading .367 batting average, along with his 70 RBI (good for 4th in AL), 70 runs, and 13 homers. If I could have only gotten the highly rated Johnny Damon - I would be benefiting from his 5 homers and .245 batting average at the season’s midway mark.

As I said before, the season is not over. But the last note I will leave you with is about my first two picks in the draft. I had the first pick overall, and I took Albert. Pujols is still solid, but according to CBS Sportsline’s midseason report he is currently the third rated 1st baseman overall at the All Star Break. His 310 average, 16 homers, and 52 RBIs, have him ranked behind Justin Morneau, and Prince Fielder as fantasy players. Fielder was the 13th rated 1st baseman in the preseason, and the 106th rated player overall. Might have raised a couple eyebrows if I took the Prince over the consensus #1. Sounds crazy doesn't it - but I would have more points right now if I did. My second pick (last pick of 2nd round) was Travis Hafner. He is hitting at a .262 clip, with 14 homers and 57 RBI. He is currently ranked as the third best DH. Just behind Hafner, (ranked as the 4th best DH at the All Star Break) is Sammy Sosa. Even without the cork filled bats Sosa is still slammin' - hitting at a .245 clip, with decent power numbers. Oh yeah, just behind Pujols as the current 4th best 1st baseman overall is Kevin Youkilis. Preseason Ranked as the 202nd best player available, and the 24th best 1st baseman available, Youk is now ranked as the 4th best 1st baseman available as a fantasy player, and is 5th in batting average in the AL at .328 - better that Man Ram and Poppi.

So do you think I should trade Pujols and Hafner...I guess I might...but only if I can get Hunter Pence and Chad Gaudin in return.

Tell us what you think -

A year end Analyze the Analyst: Fantasy Baseball Predictions Power Rankings - to follow the conclusion of the regular season

Hey NBA Draft, Thanks for Mocking Me...Josh McRoberts

2007-07-07T10:39:00.000-07:00

As the pride of Helsinki, Finland, Pettrei Kopenon shook the hand of David Stern, signaling the 30th pick in the 2007 NBA draft, and the conclusion of the 1st round, ESPN Draft Analysts Jay Bilas, Stephen A Smith, and Mark Jackson offered their thoughts on the 1st round.

Jay Bilas stated,
"...whats interesting are some of the guys that maybe miscalculated by coming out early into this draft...Josh McRoberts of Duke, ya know, thought he was going to be a first round pick, came out early...Gabe Pruitt - USC, Ramon Sessions - Nevada, Marcus Williams - Arizona, came out too early."

Too early in the sense that a 1st round NBA selection is locked in with a 3 year guaranteed contract worth millions and the 2nd round is not. It’s a lot tougher to make a career of the NBA coming out of the second round.

To Jay Bilas' statement, Mark Jackson, responded with a question.
"Well the question is, who is advising these guys? They have to know they are not going to be in a position to be drafted in the first round, bad decisions."

After watching the NBA Draft unfold, there is no disputing the fact that leaving college as an underclassman to get selected in the 2nd round is a bad decision. Unfortunately, underclassman have to declare their intentions for the draft prior to it starting. So they have to speculate, gather information, listen to what they are being told about their prospects, and then make a decision.

I don’t know Josh McRoberts, ‘don’t know who is advising’ him. But to be fair, I can tell you where he might have gotten the idea that he might ‘be in a position to be drafted in the first round.’ Where might he have gotten that idea you ask, well possibly from reading a Mock Draft - every Mock Draft.

In ten of the most widely recognized, and highly published mock drafts, referenced on this site (Scroll down to view Analyze the Analyst: Mock Draft Boards), posted no earlier than a few days before the draft, Josh McRoberts of Duke is projected to be in a position to be drafted as a 1st round selection in every single one. He is projected to go anywhere from 17-30. Only ESPN, a few hours before the draft, had him as low as 30th. There were two Mock Draft Boards, NBC Sports.com, and College Hoops Net (Scroll down to view Analyze the Analyst: Mock Draft Power Rankings - scoring the mock drafts), that had him going as high as 17th. We took an average of his mock draft position on each of the 10 mock boards, and his average position is being drafted 21st overall (20.7 avg). That is not an average of 2 or 3 mock drafts, that is ten. Josh McRoberts was drafted 37th overall, in the second round to the Portland Trailblazers.

Now what does all this mean, well nothing really. But is does answer Mark Jackson’s question to a certain extent. Who might he have been listening too, well, everyone...maybe.

So the debate begins, was it a bad decision for Josh McRoberts to leave Duke after his Sophomore season? I guess...a conclusion I have come to after watching the draft. But I will ask you this would you leave college if every single sporting authority in America told you that you would be at least a 1st round draft pick - and a millionaire to boot. I would. Do you have to be smart enough to get into Duke to think that this might be a wise business decision - take a job offer that pays a million guaranteed for at least 3 years. But I guess there is a chance that every mock draft could be wrong- huh.

McRoberts now leaves Duke to follow in the footsteps of Bobby Jones, Travis Hansen, and David Andersen. Who were they you ask... they were 3 of the 37th picks overall in the last 5 years.
If he would have gone at the 21st overall selection he would be following in the footsteps of Rajon Rando, Nate Robinson, and Boris Diaw, - 3 of the 21st overall selections taken in the last 5 years.

Its not all bad though, in 05 Rony Turiaf’s heart condition caused him to slip to the 37th pick overall, and he is an NBA contributor averaging around 13 minutes per game. Royal Ivey was the 37th pick in 04, averaged 10 minutes per game last year for the Hawks.

Rando, though, played in over 70 games as a rookie in '06, averaged 25 minutes per contest, Nate Robinson played over 20 minutes per in each of his first two seasons, and Boris Diaw played over 25 minutes a game as a rookie with the Hawks, before becoming a star with the Suns later in his career.

The other two 21st picks of the draft were Qyntell Woods, who would still be in the league if he didn't go Mike Vick, before Mike Vick did, and some 7'5" guy from Russia, that may still be under contract by the team that drafted him named Pavel Podkolzin, although I don’t know that for sure.

McRoberts may make it in the NBA, he may not. He’s got a shot. And that may have been exactly what he took, a shot. I don’t know the kid, don’t know what he was thinking. But he may have been thinking simply this, if all ten of these experts think I am a first round pick, maybe at least one of them are right. But if he wasn't thinking that maybe he was thinking something else. Maybe he thought that Jay Bilas might be right. The man sitting to the left of Mark Jackson posted his "Best Available" list throughout the draft. Josh McRoberts was Jay Bilas’ 21st overall - Best Available Player. Wait one last question: did Jay come up with his ranking formula by polling the national media's mock draft boards? Probably not...but that is a topic for another day.

Tell us what you think.

View NBA Mock Draft Predictions vs Actual NBA Draft; Read on for Analysis, Power Rankings, then tell us what you think

2007-07-01T17:09:00.000-07:00

07 Draft	SI. Com	Sporting News	Fox Sports	NBC Sports	CBS Sportsline
1. G. Oden	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)
2. K. Durant	K. Durant (30)	K. Durant (30)	K. Durant(30)	K. Durant(30)	K. Durant (30)
3. A. Horford	A. Horford (30)	A Horford (30)	B. Wright(25)	A. Horford(30)	A. Horford (30)
4. M. Conely	J. Noah (25)	M Conely (30)	Horford(29)	J. Noah (25)	M. Conely (30)
5. J. Green	C. Brewer(28)	J. Green (30)	J. Green (30)	Yi J (29)	Yi J (29)
6. Yi J	M. Conely (28)	B. Wright (28)	MConely (28)	M.Conely(28)	B. Wright (28)
7. C. Brewer	S. Hawes(27)	S. Hawes (27)	S. Hawes(27)	C. Brewer(30)	J. Green (28)
8. B. Wright	B. Wright(30)	C. Brewer (29)	C Brewer(29)	B. Wright(30)	C. Brewer (29)
9. J. Noah	Yi J. (27)	AThornton(25)	Yi J (27)	S. Hawes(29)	J. Noah (30)
10. S. Hawes	J. Green (25)	Yi. J (26)	J. Noah (29)	J. Green (25)	S. Hawes (30)
11. A. Law	A. Law (30)	J. Wright (28)	Critendon(22)	A. Law (30)	A. Law (30)
12. T. Young	Thornton (28)	J. Noah (27)	J. Wright(28)	J. Wright (29)	A. Thornton (28)
13. J. Wright	N. Young (27)	T. Young (29)	Thornton(29)	T. Young(29)	T. Young (29)
14. Thornton	Crittendon(25)	N. Young (28)	A. Law (27)	Thornton (30)	J. Wright (29)
15.R. Stuckey	R. Stuckey(30)	R. Stuckey(30)	RStuckey(30)	Crittnedon(26)	N. Young(29)
16. N. Young	J. Wright(27)	D. Byars(0)	N.Young (30)	J. Smith(26)	J. Smith(26)
17. S. Williams	J. Smith(27)	G. Davis(0)	Williams(30)	McRoberts(0)	S. Williams(30)
18. M. Bellini	T. Spittler(20)	JMcRobert(0)	T. Young(24)	Fernandez(24)	R. Stuckey(27)
19. J. Crittendon	G. Pruitt(0)	A. Law (22)	JMcRobert(0)	N. Young(27)	D. Byars(0)
20. Jason Smith	D. Byars(0)	Crittendon(29)	J. Smith(30)	D. Byars(0)	G. Pruitt(0)
21. D. Cook	T. Young(21)	T. Splitter(23)	G. Pruitt(0)	Stuckey (24)	J. McRoberts(0)
22. J. Dudely	M. Almond(27)	J. Smith(28)	Fernadez(28)	M Almond(27)	M. Almond(27)
23. W. Chandler	D. Cook(28)	Chandler(30)	M Bellini(25)	SWilliams(24)	J. Crittendon(26)
24. R. Fernandez	M. Bellini(24)	A. Tucker(25)	R Sessions(0)	T. Spittler(26)	D. Cook(27)
25. M. Almond	JMcRoberts(0)	M. Bellini (23)	D. Cook(26)	M. Bellini(23)	Fernandez(29)
26. A. Brooks	G. Davis(0)	Williams(21)	D. Byars(0)	D. Cook(25)	R. Sessions(0)
27. A. Afflalo	D. McGuire(0)	R. Terry(0)	T. Spittler(29)	A. Tucker(28)	T. Splitter(29)
28. T. Splitter	Fernandez(26)	Fernandez(26)	Almond(27)	A. Afflalo(29)	J. Dudely(24)
29. A. Tucker	P. Koponen(29)	Kopenon(29)	G. Davis(0)	G. Pruitt(0)	M. Bellini(19)
30. P. Koponen	K. Fesenko(0)	D. Cook(21)	N. Fazekas(0)	Kopenon(30)	G. Davis(0)

07 Draft	ESPN. com	Real GM	Inside Hoops	College Hoops Net	Sports Blog Nation
1. G. Oden	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)	G. Oden (30)
2. K. Durant	K. Durant (30)	K. Durant (30)	K. Durant(30)	K. Durant (30)	K. Durant (30)
3. A. Horford	A.Horford (30)	M. Conely(29)	Horford(30)	A. Horford(30)	A. Horford (30)
4. M. Conely	M.Conely (30)	A.Horford (29)	M.Conely(30)	B. Wright(26)	M. Conely (30)
5. J. Green	Yi J (29)	B.Wright (27)	J. Green (30)	Yi J (29)	Yi J (29)
6. Yi J	J. Green (29)	C. Brewer(29)	C Brewer(29)	M.Conely (28)	B. Wright (28)
7. C. Brewer	C. Brewer (30)	J. Green (28)	S. Hawes (27)	S. Hawes (27)	C. Brewer (30)
8. B. Wright	B. Wright (30)	N. Young(22)	J. Noah (29)	C. Brewer(29)	Thornton (24)
9. J. Noah	J. Noah (30)	J. Noah (30)	B. Wright(29)	J. Noah (30)	S. Hawes (29)
10. S. Hawes	Thornton (26)	Yi J (26)	Yi J (26)	J. Wright (27)	A. Law (29)
11. A. Law	A. Law (30)	S. Hawes (29)	A. Law (30)	JCritendon(22)	J. Crittendon(22)
12. T. Young	J. Wright (29)	Thornton (28)	Thornton (28)	J. Green (23)	J. Green (23)
13. J. Wright	N. Young(27)	T. Young (29)	N. Young(27)	Thornton (29)	J. Wright (30)
14. Thornton	Criitendon(25)	A. Law(27)	J. Wright (29)	A. Law (27)	J. Noah (25)
15.R. Stuckey	R. Stuckey(30)	R. Stuckey(30)	Critendon(26)	N.Young(29)	N. Young(29)
16. N. Young	S. Hawes (26)	J. Wright (27)	J. Smith(26)	T. Young (26)	J. Smith(26)
17. S. Williams	Williams(30)	Williams(30)	T. Young(25)	J.McRobert(0)	D. Byars(0)
18. M. Bellini	J. Smith (28)	J. Smith(28)	McRobert(0)	J. Smith(28)	T. Young (24)
19. J. Crittendon	Fernandez(25)	D. Cook(28)	RStuckey(26)	Fernandez(25)	R. Stuckey(26)
20. Jason Smith	T. Young (22)	Crittendon(29)	T. Splitter(22)	R.Stuckey(25)	T. Spittler(22)
21. D. Cook	G. Davis(0)	J. McRobert(0)	Almond(26)	SWilliams(26)	J. McRoberts(0)
22. J. Dudely	D. Cook(29)	D. Byars(0)	M.Bellini(26)	G. Pruitt(0)	M. Almond(27)
23. W. Chandler	Chandler(30)	Chandler(30)	Chandler(30)	Chandler(30)	S. Williams(24)
24. R. Fernandez	T. Splitter(26)	Fernandez(30)	Williams(23)	M. Bellini(24)	M. Bellini(25)
25. M. Almond	Almond(30)	M Almond(30)	A. Tucker(26)	D. Byars(0)	P. Kopenon(25)
26. A. Brooks	N. Fazekas(0)	G. Davis(0)	G. Davis(0)	Almond(29)	K. Fessenko(0)
27. A. Afflalo	M. Bellini(21)	T. Splitter(29)	Ferandez(27)	A. Gray(0)	D. Cook(24)
28. T. Splitter	J. Dudley(24)	M. Bellini (20)	G. Pruitt(0)	A. Afflalo(29)	Fernandez(26)
29. A. Tucker	G. Pruitt(0)	R. Sessions(0)	J. Dudely(23)	T. Splitter(29)	G. Pruitt(0)
30. P. Koponen	J. McRobert(0)	G. Pruitt(0)	N. Fazekas(0)	D. Cook(21)	G. Davis(0)

Mock Draft 'Analysts' Power Rankings - Who did the best?

2007-07-01T16:04:00.000-07:00

NBA Draft:Grading out the Mock Drafts...

The NBA Draft has come and gone. There are 30 more millionaires in America scattered amongst NBA cities, and there are countless others that hope to one day shake the hand of the NBA’s commissioner in the future. There were stories of dreams realized by players, hopes lifted by fans, and the promise of a new day withing NBA organizations. With that said, there were disappointments as well. There were disappointments of players who thought they would go higher, to a different team, in the first round versus the second, or in the second round versus not at all. There were also disappointments of NBA organizations who missed their guy, and fans who think they might have missed their’s as well.

As in every draft, this is to be expected. On Friday and Saturday those same experts that gave you their Mock Drafts in the weeks before the Draft, will now give you their draft day grades. They will tell which teams helped themselves, and which teams hurt themselves, based on who the teams were able to acquire. All of this is interesting discussion, as it is every year, and we all enjoy engaging in these debates. This year, we here at News from the Nosebleeds, decided to give out our own draft day grades, and rankings. Except we are not rating the NBA teams on how well they did, we are rating the analysts, on how well they did. In our latest edition of Analyze the Analyst - we tracked 10 of the most popular sports authorities, and pitted their results against what actually happened. In doing so, we were able to see, who was right, and who was wrong, and who we should believe next time. These are the results:

Mock Draft Power Rankings
Publication...Writer - Total Points

1. ESPN...Chad Ford - 1586
2. Real GM...Christopher Reina - 1549
3. NBC Sports...Rich Zuckerman - 1536
4. Inside Hoops...Jeff Lenchiner - 1529
5. CBS Sportsline...Gary Parrish - 1519
6. College Hoops Net...Shawn Siegel - 1514
7. Fox Sports...Jeff Goodman - 1487
8. Sports Blog Nation...Spots Blog Collaboration - 1472
9. Sporting News...Sean Deveney - 1467
10. Sports Illustrated...Chris Eckstrand - 1423

In grading out these results, a couple variables should be mentioned.

We used the latest mock drafts available online from the respective analysts. Some were last updated one day, two days, five days before. We tried to use the latest mock drafts in our analysis. ESPN's Chad Ford updated his mock draft from the Wednesday night before the draft, to the evening of the draft (a few hours prior) for the last time, and his was the latest.

Click on Mock Draft: Dates published...to view a list of when each Mock used was last updated.

CBS Sportsline was the only publication to get the Top Five Picks exactly correct in order, others had four, none had six. Also, while the other nine were published by one writer, Sports Blog Nation was a collection of bloggers representing 30 NBA teams, they predicted trades, no one else did.

Click on Mock Draft: Draft Board to see each Mock Draft in its entirety

Scoring is also an obvious variable. We used the First Round only. Those picks are the only guaranteed contracts in the NBA, so we made that the point of emphasis. We associated a score with each pick of the mock draft, based on how close the player was to being drafted at that spot. We tried not to penalize a mock draft that selected a player 31st, and he went 30th through our weighted multiplier.

Click on Mock Draft: Rating Formula to view the scoring formula

Lastly were trades. We did not factor trades from one team to another into the equation at all. For one, the Mock Drafts did not include possible trades, so we didn't either. And secondly, the Mock was a reflection of where the player would get drafted, so we rated the accuracy of that.

We would love to hear from you. Let us, at News From the Nosebleeds, know what you think about the results, analysts, rating formula, and more. Blog on Now, Post your response.

How Does Sports Illustrated's NFL Preview 2006 Look in Review?

2007-06-25T18:54:00.000-07:00

Sports Illustrated NFL Preview 2007...How did SI do last year in 2006??? Not so good...

Sports Illustrated. The father and all-knowing source for sports information. They have published their NFL Preview Edition. Terrific right. Awesome. I can’t wait to read it so that I can turn my television off on Sunday, and just know what will happen. Because they are Sports Illustrated, they must be right - right? Well, kinda. In the latest edition of the crap shoot that is prognosticating the NFL, King Peter and his minions will research, review, and analyze. But do they know more than you, do they know more than me. Who’s analyzing the analysts? Are they going to publish how they did last year, in the pages preceding this year’s NFL Preview? Are they going to give any money back from the newsstand price they charged last year, if their NFL Preview was, in review, inaccurate? I don’t think they will, but since Sports Illustrated won’t tell you how they did last year, or refund your money, we wanted to let you know how they did before they tempted you to buy their latest collection of guesses.

Lets start with a riddle. What do the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos have in common? You say, ‘two teams that were unable to qualify for the playoffs last season even as wildcards...’ I say, correct, but not the answer I was looking for. The Panthers and Broncos have in common the fact that they were Sports Illustrated’s preseason edition magazine pick to match up head to head in Super Bowl XLI. Hey Peyton, where they there? Carolina and Denver’s combined records were 17-15. Indy and Chicago’s, the two teams that actually played for the Super Bowl combined for a record were 25-7 in the regular season. Sports Illustrated picked the Carolina Panthers too win the Super Bowl and lay claim to Lombardi Trophy in ‘06. Indianapolis beat Chicago. Carolina finished the regular season 8-8.

Sports Illustrated correctly analyzed, after breaking down hours of film with Ron Jaworski, that the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks would qualify for the playoffs. Colts and Pats, my mother could have picked. Seattle was in the Super Bowl the year before. But still sometimes the previous loser of the Super Bowl falls apart and doesn’t make the playoffs the next year, so for the Bears, Giants, and Seahawks, We’ll give ‘em credit for those picks - sort of. There are 12 playoff teams however. They got five right in the 2006 NFL Draft Preview. 5 of 12, 41%. That is 41% accuracy rate and they did not pick either team to correctly advance to the Super Bowl. There are 32 teams, 12 get into the playoffs, 20 do not, 5 of 12. I don’t think that is so good - do you. So if they picked 7 teams to make the Playoffs, and those teams did not get in, who’d they pick you ask. I will tell you.

Besides prognosticating the Carolina Panthers (8-8) and the Denver Broncos (9-7) in the clash of mediocrity - a.k.a. - the ‘Super Bowl ‘06’, Sports Illustrated also selected the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8), the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), the Washington Redskins (5-11), the Atlanta Falcons (7-9), and the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) to make the 2006 NFL Playoffs.
The 7 teams that Sports Illustrated selected to make the playoffs in 2006 that did not make it, had a combined regular season record of 53-59, six games under .500.

The seven teams that they did not pick - the NY Jets (10-6), Baltimore Ravens (13-3), San Diego Chargers (14-2), Kansas City Chiefs (9-7), Philadelphia Eagles (9-7), Dallas Cowboys (9-7), and the New Orleans Saints (10-6) that actually made the playoffs had a combined record of 74-38. 36 games over .500. A difference of 42 games (Sports Illustrated -6, actuality +36) over .500. That is way off in my opinion.

Also, to add insult to injury Sports Illustrated’s preseason Coach of the Year in 2006 was Arizona’s own Dennis Green. The Arizona Cardinals finished 5-11, and they will have a new head coach tossing the red replay bean bag in 2007. And while Dennis Green was well aware of the fact that the ‘Bears were who they thought they were’ on a particular Monday night - it wasn’t enough to pull in that ‘Coach of the Year’ award that Sports Illustrated ‘thought he was.’

With all of this said, these are my thoughts and questions that I raise to you. How come, writers who are paid to deliver inside information, analysis, predictions, and stories are allowed to be this wrong. Peter King, and the NFL staff at Sports Illustrated had a job to do last year prior to publishing their NFL preseason magazine. They were to analyze the data, and make a prediction. They were wrong, quite wrong. If a manager of an investment portfolio were to be this wrong one year, you would not pay him to predict the stock market again next year. So why are we supposed to pay Sports Illustrated to predict the NFL again? And what about all those fans - say Redskins’ fans - who thought their team was going to be the best team since the undefeated Dolphins based on the reviews of SI and the like - tough year for them (5-11). What about Panthers fans - win the Super Bowl, how about 8-8.

Lucky for me, I am a Browns fan, I knew we’d stink, and at least SI got that right. But I want to hear from the fans. Do you ever wonder who is analyzing the analysts? Do you ever sit up in the nosebleeds watching your favorite team thinking... "I know more than that guy (insert talking head)" We are here to tell you, you probably do, and we’d rather hear analysis from you, the real News, News From the Nosebleeds. Oh and by the way, what do those talking heads say when their predictions are wrong? They say the aforementioned team ‘underachieved.’ Maybe you under achieved as an analyst, ever think of that?